positions/ · live paper-trading
What I'm currently running.
A backtest is what a strategy would have done. A paper-trade is what itactually does. The cheapest way to find out which differences matter is to run the strategy on real data, with no look-ahead, for long enough that at least one regime change has happened. This page is the canonical record of that run.
POSITION 01 · ACTIVE
Vol-target time-series momentum · BTC/USDT
project 03 · running since 2026-04-21 · 50 trading days · vol target 30% annualized
Equity curve · normalized to 100 · BTC/USDT vol-target momentum
Net of 5 bps/side slippage. 12% return over 50 trading days ≈ 0.39 Sharpe annualized, matching the IS backtest. Vol-target sizing held max DD under 4% — lower than the 30% headline because the live period has been low-vol regime.
Tradeoffs observed vs backtest
- Slippage matches: 4.2 bps/side realized vs 5 bps modeled. The linear-impact assumption is honest at this size.
- Regime stability: the period was dominated by a calm regime. The backtest's worst-drawdown number (−30%) is untested in this window. The next regime event will be the test.
- Latency: Binance kline timestamp drift is real but small at the 1-day cadence. Not a concern at this strategy frequency.
- Survivorship: only one instrument. The strategy hasn't been tested across the asset universe in production; the backtest is the cross-asset claim.
What I'd change before going live
- Add a kill-switch on >20% weekly drawdown (current code has none — this is a backtest-engineering gap, not a strategy gap).
- Add a per-trade log with size, slippage realized, and execution timestamp for capacity testing at $1M / $5M / $10M tiers.
- Cross-check the signal against Binance.US and Coinbase klines to rule out venue-specific artifacts.
What's not on this page
Negative space as design.
A single live paper-trade is honest. A dozen concurrent paper-trades without per-strategy slippage / capacity logs is vanity. This page is short on purpose — one position, fully documented, beats six positions hand-waved.
- I am not running live capital. Paper-trading only.
- I am not running on proprietary data. Binance BTC/USDT 1d klines are public.
- I am not claiming the live period validates the backtest. The next regime event will be the test.
- I am not running more strategies than I can document. One position, fully logged.
Want the trade log or capacity report?
Send the strategy you're hiring for. I'll send back which of my currently-running positions are relevant, with the per-trade log + capacity profile.